The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: High — based on 122 comparable auction sales (37 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±11% for this configuration · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 210/9-15 Ascot St | 2 bd · 2 ba | $1M | Sept 2025 |
| 24/16 Boronia St | 2 bd · 1 ba | $970k | July 2025 |
| G01/8 Grosvenor St | 2 bd · 2 ba | $1.35M | June 2025 |
| 2/17 Todman Av | 2 bd · 1 ba | $940k | May 2025 |
| 6/64-66 Anzac Pde | 2 bd · 2 ba | $1.15M | May 2025 |
| 4/37 Kensington Rd | 2 bd · 1 ba | $1.01M | Apr 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 63 — above sydney average · 27 min walk to Kingsford Light Rail · ~28 min light rail to the CBD · light rail ~every 8 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Kensington — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Kensington · postcode 2033
$820/wk median live asking rent for 2-bed homes in Kensington (7 live rental listings on agency websites, this week's sweep).
$792–$945/wk is what 2-bed units in 2033 actually transact for (middle half of 75 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $870/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $590 → $800/wk · +2% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for units in 2033, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Growth trend — Kensington units at auction
Measured like-for-like growth ≈ 3.0%/yr — 2-bed sold-price medians across 16 quarters (41 sales).
Suburb-level, from published auction results. No single building has enough sales for a block-level series, so this is the honest grain; sales-mix shifts move raw medians, and the measured rate (when shown) controls for bed count.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2026 | Sold prior | $1,100,000 | BresicWhitney East |
| 18 July 2026 | Postponed | withheld | BresicWhitney East |
| 4 July 2026 | Postponed | withheld | BresicWhitney East |
| 27 June 2026 | Postponed | withheld | BresicWhitney East |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Planning & zoning — E2 Commercial Centre
A major retail/office core — the busiest, most built-up kind of location.
Height limit 25m (≈ 8 storeys) — the current legal ceiling for new building at this point under the LEP. Any proposal above it needs a variation or a rezoning — the kind of change the fast-track pipeline tracks.
Strata plan SP97069 · scheme parcel ~1,916 m² — A strata-titled scheme — the parcel area is the WHOLE scheme's land, not this unit's. From the NSW cadastre at this address's geocoded point.
Zone E2 (Commercial Centre) under the RANDWICK LEP, from the NSW ePlanning layers at this address's geocoded point — a guide, not a parcel-level legal check. Confirm the exact lot at the NSW Planning Portal.
Development applications — at & near this address
| Where | Proposal | Status | Outcome | Est. cost | Lodged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~126 m · 9-15 Ascot Street Kensington 2033 | Alterations Or Additions To An Existing Building Or Structure, Minor Building Alterations (External) | Additional Information Requested | not on record | $564k | 2026-08-04 |
Development application data © NSW Department of Planning and Environment, used under CC BY 4.0. Matched at this exact address or within ~150 m of its geocoded point — proximity evidence, not a parcel-level check. Lodged means proposed, not approved or built. Outcome comes from a separate NSW dataset that stops in Nov 2023: applications determined after that, or still undetermined, read “not on record” — which means we don't know, never that it was refused. “Status” is the council's own workflow state and “Determined” on its own does not say which way it went. Verify any application on the NSW Planning Portal.
Construction risk — what no listing tells you
Building Commission NSW / Strata Community Association 2023 Strata Defects Survey: 53% of newly registered strata buildings reported at least one serious defect in common property (39% in the 2021 survey). Defects are common, not exceptional — and new does not mean safe (Opal Tower was under a year old).
Get an independent structural and strata inspection before you commit — the defect base rate makes it the single highest-value dollar in the purchase.
We cannot see inside a building — no one can from public records. This section states base rates and observable adjacency only, and will never call a building safe.
What's changing in Kensington — recent local signals
2026-08-08 — South Coogee to Kingsford walking & cycling corridor (stage-zero.json (date = register entry, not decision — check stageNote for the real dates))
2026-06-11 — Place of worship departure — 1 ROMA AVENUE KENSINGTON 2033 ($91k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-646359, OnlineDA))
2025-07-01 — Childcare departure — 31 TODMAN AVENUE KENSINGTON 2033 ($1137k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-548829, OnlineDA))
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Kensington PS (primary) · Randwick HS (secondary)
6 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1084 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
NSW DoE intake zones at this address's geocoded point — tighter than a suburb-level guess, but geocodes carry a few metres of error and boundaries change with reviews. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Green space nearby
Protected public recreation land within 100 m
Land zoned RE1 under the local environmental plan — reserved for public recreation, which protects it from being built over. The zoning doesn't say what's on it or how usable it is, and this layer doesn't carry park names.
Privately-zoned recreation land (RE2 — typically golf courses or club grounds) within 1000 m. Private land: green outlook, not public open space.
Straight-line distance, not walking distance. NSW ePlanning planning layers (Land Zoning), CC BY. Distances are ladder buckets measured at the address's geocoded point.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
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Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.