The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 59 comparable auction sales (0 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±31% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
Suburb risk flags
flood exposure 49% of the suburb · bushfire exposure 0% · aircraft noise high · crime index: 59 — around sydney average · 9 min walk to Mascot · ~10 min train to the CBD · trains ~every 8 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Local rents — postcode 2020 units, new tenancies
$1050/week median new-tenancy unit rent in 2020 (2026Q2, 405 bonds lodged).
The rent is real (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY) but it pools every bedroom count in the postcode and this is a 4-bed — so we don't derive a yield % from it: a ratio of two different grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents also run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Growth trend — Mascot units at auction
Too few same-bed sales for a measured growth rate yet. Recent quarterly sold medians (all unit sizes — thin samples move these):
2024Q3 $839k (4) · 2024Q4 $1170k (5) · 2025Q1 $754k (4) · 2025Q2 $748k (4)
Suburb-level, from published auction results. No single building has enough sales for a block-level series, so this is the honest grain; sales-mix shifts move raw medians, and the measured rate (when shown) controls for bed count.
Published auction results at this address
| Auction week | Result | Price | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 July 2026 | Sold prior | $1,125,000 | NGFarah |
From Domain's published weekly auction results — individual outcomes as published; withheld prices stay withheld.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Mascot, around 4 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 414/42 Church Avenue | by 17 Aug 2026 | $1,390,000 | 3 | Meriton |
| 401/12 Galloway Street | by 17 Aug 2026 | $1,375,000 | 3 | Meriton |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
Sale history — the official settled-sale record at this address
| Exchanged | Price | Change since prior sale |
|---|---|---|
| 26 June 2025 | $1,125,000 | — |
Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Two entries on one date are usually a single transaction recorded across parts. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).
Construction risk — what no listing tells you
Building Commission NSW / Strata Community Association 2023 Strata Defects Survey: 53% of newly registered strata buildings reported at least one serious defect in common property (39% in the 2021 survey). Defects are common, not exceptional — and new does not mean safe (Opal Tower was under a year old).
Get an independent structural and strata inspection before you commit — the defect base rate makes it the single highest-value dollar in the purchase.
We cannot see inside a building — no one can from public records. This section states base rates and observable adjacency only, and will never call a building safe.
The building — its registered strata scheme
Strata plan SP81059 registered 2008 — the building is at least 18 years old · 95 lots in the scheme.
Registration is an age floor, not a build date — a converted building is older than its strata plan. Scheme records from the NSW Strata Hub. © State of New South Wales (Spatial Services, a business unit of the Department of Customer Service NSW). For current information go to spatial.nsw.gov.au.
What's changing in Mascot — recent local signals
2026-08-24 — Place of worship invest — 38 RICKETTY STREET MASCOT 2020 ($330k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-665566, OnlineDA))
2026-08-18 — Place of worship invest — 768 BOTANY ROAD MASCOT 2020 ($578k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-663802, OnlineDA))
2026-07-03 — DA-approved site — listing's own words: "DA-approved" (51 Hardie Street, Mascot, NSW 2020) (listing rea-151093680 (rea), first seen 2026-07-03)
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.