The listing we observed
3 bedrooms · House
Listing details describe the advertised home. They do not verify its condition or approved use.
Mark Bowis · last observed 22 Sept 2026← swipe · 10 photos
Currently listed — $3,850,000
3 bed · 3 bath · 1 car · House · 232 m² land
Your buyer evidence guide
Understand the home before the offer.
The useful records, what they mean, and the questions they leave open. Start here, then explore the evidence below.
How much price evidence fits
174 sales in the wider suburb/type pool
The wider pool is not a set of identical homes. Bedroom count, condition and location within the suburb affect comparability.
Published auction evidence · model trained through 2026-09-15What deserves a closer look
- asking $3.85M
- first tracked by our radar (the portal doesn't publish its list date)
These are recorded events, not evidence of the seller's motivation.
What we still cannot tell you
- No settled-sale history is available in this page's records. This does not mean the home has never sold.
- Direct price support is limited. Read the comparable sales and the estimate's uncertainty together.
- Public records and an automated estimate cannot establish whether the home is defect-free, what the contract contains, or why the owner is selling.
Questions to take to the inspection
Use these with the agent and your independent advisers. An answer is something to verify, not a fact we have recorded.
- Which recent sales are most comparable to this home, and how do their size, condition and position differ?
- What repairs, alterations or water issues are documented, and what can an independent inspection verify?
The estimate is a model output. The records are evidence. Your inspection and document checks fill the gaps.
Is the asking price plausible?
This is a comparison with the evidence we hold, not a valuation or a recommended offer.
CONSERVATIVE
$3.03M
the calibrated floor
LIKELY FAIR RANGE
$3.03M–$3.88M
around $3.43M mid
STRETCH CAP
$3.88M
$4.54M on the wider 80% band
Confidence: Low — based on 174 comparable auction sales (5 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±12% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · priced from this property's own records: block size · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~10% against published results — every hit and miss
How this estimate was made
- Method: AI PropertyEye tree model · trained through 2026-09-15
- Inputs used for this home: priced from this property's own records: block size
- Comparable support: 174 sales in the wider suburb/type pool; 5 of this exact configuration
- When to be more cautious: This configuration has thin direct comparable support, so its range is deliberately wider.
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 White St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $3.04M | Apr 2025 |
| 36 Fitzroy Av | 3 bd · 1 ba | $3.42M | Apr 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 42 — around sydney average · 16 min walk to Balmain East Wharf · ~12 min ferry to the CBD · ferries ~every 15 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye tree model 2026-09-02-v7-price-model-v6-full-grid, trained through 2026-09-15 — trained on 169,861 published auction sales; priced per address where this home's own records reach the model (see "How this estimate was made"), otherwise at configuration level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Balmain — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Evidence trail: tracked by our radar from portal listings, web-archive checks and published auction results — each entry dated
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
What changed recently?
- 21 Sept 2026 first tracked by our radar (the portal doesn't publish its list date)
- 21 Sept 2026 asking $3.85M
- 23 Sept 2026 on market 1+ days — first tracked by us, a lower bound
What to inspect before you offer
- Condition, aspect, renovation and the contract — these can materially change price, and the estimate cannot see them.
These are due-diligence prompts, not a verdict on this property.
⏱ Days on market — this campaign
1 day since our daily sweep first saw this listing.
The portal's own campaign may have started slightly earlier than our first sighting. Longer campaigns tend to mean more negotiating room — the board's "Longest listed" sort exists for exactly that reason.
Rent evidence — asking vs transacted, Balmain · postcode 2041
$1300–$1638/wk is what 3-bed houses in 2041 actually transact for (middle half of 22 bonds lodged, Q2 2026 · median $1535/wk — NSW Fair Trading, CC BY).
2019Q1 → 2026Q2: $900 → $1300/wk · +5% over the last 12 months (latest four quarters averaged against the previous four) — quarterly new-tenancy medians for houses in 2041, all bedroom counts pooled.
Asking rents are what agents hope for; bond figures are what tenants actually signed at (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY). No yield % is derived here: each rent above is a different grain from this home's price, and a ratio of two grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.
Land — for a house, the land is the asset
232 m²
A house's size is its land. An apartment's advertised "size" can include car space and balcony — the two are never comparable and this site never pools them. Lot details and planning controls sit under Explore the area.
Agencies' own published sales nearby — Balmain, around 3 beds
| Address | Sold | Price | Beds | Agency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 427b Darling Street | 4 Sept 2026 | $1,770,000 | 3 | Harris Partners |
| 20/10 Gow Street | 19 Aug 2026 | $1,550,000 | 3 | Harris Partners |
| 15 Bradford Street | 1 July 2026 | $2,125,000 | 3 | Harris Partners |
| 311/22 Colgate Avenue | 3 June 2026 | $1,800,000 | 2 | Harris Partners |
| 8/1 Rosebery Place | 18 May 2026 | $1,322,500 | 2 | Harris Partners |
Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.
Similar properties — on the market now
$4,000,000
41 Lawson Street
Balmain
3 bed · 2 bath · 3 car
$3,650,000
47 Moodie Street
Rozelle · 1.2 km away
4 bed · 4 bath · 1 car
$4,200,000
20 Toxteth Road
Glebe · 2.4 km away
4 bed · 3 bath · 1 car
$3,380,000
13 Alfred Rd
Forest Lodge · 2.6 km away
4 bed · 2 bath · 2 car
$3,300,000
13/56 Mount Street
Pyrmont · 1.8 km away
3 bed · 3 bath · 2 car
$3,250,000
10 White Street
Balmain
3 bed · 1 bath
The 6 listings above are on the market now: same house category, within 1 bedroom of 3, asking within 20% of this one, in Balmain or a suburb whose centre is within 3 km — ordered by how close the asking price is. That is the whole rule: a filter, not a recommendation, and nothing here judges which home is better.
What's changing in Balmain — recent local signals
2026-08-19 — Development site — listing's own words: "STCA" (48 Mort Street, Balmain, NSW 2041) (listing rea-152086608 (rea), first seen 2026-08-19)
2026-08-18 — Development site — listing's own words: "STCA" (12 Longview Street, Balmain, NSW 2041) (listing rea-152068796 (rea), first seen 2026-08-18)
2026-08-14 — Development site — listing's own words: "STCA" (16 Macquarie Terrace, Balmain, NSW 2041) (listing rea-151973860 (rea), first seen 2026-08-14)
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Balmain PS (primary) · SSC Balmain (secondary)
4 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1132 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
Suburb-centre approximation for Balmain — addresses near a boundary can differ. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.