









Currently listed — $2,700,000
3 bed · 1 bath · 0 car · House · 101 m² land
The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.
Confidence: Low — based on 111 comparable auction sales (24 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±15% for this configuration · adjusted for this block's land size · thin comparable support for this configuration — read the range as wider, not as a warning · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss
What we've tracked
- 14 Aug 2026 our tracking restarted after a six-week portal gap — the campaign start is unknown, this is not a listing date
- 18 Aug 2026 asking $2.7M
Comparable auction sales
| Address | Config | Sold | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 Fitzroy St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $2.33M | June 2025 |
| 49 Mackey St | 3 bd · 1 ba | $2.1M | May 2025 |
| 44 Nickson St | 3 bd · 3 ba | $2.92M | May 2025 |
| 613 Bourke St | 3 bd · 3 ba | $4.35M | May 2025 |
| 5 Wilshire St | 3 bd · 2 ba | $2.63M | May 2025 |
Suburb risk flags
crime index: 100 — well above sydney average · 10 min walk to Central · trains ~every 2 min at peak
Where every number comes from
- Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
- Comps: published Domain auction results for Surry Hills — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
- Evidence trail: tracked by our radar from portal listings, web-archive checks and published auction results — each entry dated
- Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment
Land — for a house, the land is the asset
101 m²
A house's size is its land. An apartment's advertised "size" can include car space and balcony — the two are never comparable and this site never pools them. Lot details and planning controls sit under Explore the area.
Development potential — how Council of the City of Sydney treats the work you might do
Refuses 2.61% of the development applications it decides · off-street parking 3.08% (determinations to Nov 2023).
The full outlook — every category with confidence ranges, which plan elements come unstuck, and the heritage effect by category — is under Explore the area.
Similar properties — on the market now
The 6 listings above are on the market now: same house category, within 1 bedroom of 3, asking within 20% of this one, in Surry Hills or a suburb whose centre is within 3 km — ordered by how close the asking price is. That is the whole rule: a filter, not a recommendation, and nothing here judges which home is better.
Planning & zoning — R1 General Residential
A mix of housing types — houses through to apartments — permitted.
Heritage conservation area — Moore Park. The property sits in a heritage conservation area — the streetscape is protected, so visible/external changes are controlled. It's area-wide, not this building specifically; it tends to preserve character and value.
Zone R1 (General Residential) under the SYDNEY LEP · heritage from the NSW Heritage Map layer, from the NSW ePlanning layers at this address's geocoded point — a guide, not a parcel-level legal check. Confirm the exact lot at the NSW Planning Portal.
Development outlook — how often Council of the City of Sydney has refused this kind of work
| If you wanted to… | Refused | vs NSW | Applications decided |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alterations & additions | 1.93% (1.34–2.78%) | 0.7× (NSW 2.63%) | 28 refused of 1,450 · 13 approved with conditions |
| Off-street parking | 3.08% (0.85–10.54%) | 1.2× (NSW 2.58%) | 2 refused of 65 · 1 approved with conditions |
| Pool, deck or fence | 3.41% (1.57–7.24%) | 2× (NSW 1.73%) | 6 refused of 176 |
| Granny flat | 3.13% (0.55–15.74%) | 0.7× (NSW 4.45%) | 1 refused of 32 · 1 approved with conditions |
| Knock down & rebuild | 5.63% (2.88–10.72%) | 0.5× (NSW 11.55%) | 8 refused of 142 · 4 approved with conditions |
Across all application types Council of the City of Sydney refused 2.61% (2.08–3.26%) of the 2,839 development applications it decided.
Where these applications come unstuck
The refusal rate above says how strict the council is. This says which part of a plan is exposed — measured across all 192,284 NSW development applications, not just this council. Each is an association: plenty of applications carrying these elements are approved, and nothing here is a verdict on a proposal you haven't made yet.
- Alterations & additions — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 7.27% vs 2.59% for this kind of work generally — 2.8×, on 220 applications); excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.71% vs 2.54% for this kind of work generally — 2.64×, on 611 applications)
- Off-street parking — a new vehicle crossing cut into the front boundary (refused 8.45% vs 2.42% for this kind of work generally — 3.49×, on 284 applications)
- Pool, deck or fence — excavation or a new lower level (refused 6.22% vs 1.61% for this kind of work generally — 3.88×, on 659 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 4.97% vs 1.6% for this kind of work generally — 3.12×, on 965 applications)
- Knock down & rebuild — excavation or a new lower level (refused 25.78% vs 9.36% for this kind of work generally — 2.75×, on 256 applications); full demolition and rebuild (refused 19.91% vs 10.46% for this kind of work generally — 1.9×, on 221 applications)
Because this address sits in a heritage listing
Heritage does not make everything harder — it depends entirely on what you want to do, and for some work it makes approval more likely. Measured across NSW by category:
- Alterations & additions — heritage listing raises the refusal rate: 4.39% on heritage-affected land vs 2.27% elsewhere
- Off-street parking — heritage listing raises the refusal rate: 7.37% on heritage-affected land vs 2.29% elsewhere
- Pool, deck or fence — heritage listing raises the refusal rate: 4.56% on heritage-affected land vs 1.62% elsewhere
- Granny flat — heritage listing raises the refusal rate: 9.63% on heritage-affected land vs 4.4% elsewhere
- Knock down & rebuild — heritage listing lowers the refusal rate: 7.1% on heritage-affected land vs 12.68% elsewhere — applications here are typically pre-advised and conservative
These are NSW-wide rates for heritage-affected applications, not Council of the City of Sydney-specific, and they describe applications rather than this property. The zoning section above records the actual listing at this address.
Determinations lodged on the NSW Planning Portal up to Nov 2023 — the published dataset stops there, so this is a record of how the council has behaved, not a forecast and not a statement about any particular application. Rates cover development applications only; modifications and reviews of an earlier decision are excluded. A rate is shown only where at least 30 applications were decided — below that the counts are given instead, because a percentage from a handful of decisions is not a fact about a council. "Approved with conditions" is a consent, not a refusal, and is never counted as one.
What's changing in Surry Hills — recent local signals
2025-09-30 — Place of worship invest — 119-123 DEVONSHIRE STREET SURRY HILLS 2010 ($193k) (institutional-signals.json (PAN-574775, OnlineDA))
Dated public signals compiled for this suburb — openings, closures, site sales and institutional moves. Facts with sources, not forecasts.
School catchments
Crown St PS (primary) · Inner Sydney HS (secondary)
9 primary schools within 2 km · ICSEA ~1104 — the socio-educational advantage of the school community (My School, national average ~1000): a demographic measure, never a results or quality score.
Suburb-centre approximation for Surry Hills — addresses near a boundary can differ. Verify the exact address at School Finder. Intake zones cover government schools only.
Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?
Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.
Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.