411/99 Jones street · Ultimo NSW 2007

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Ultimo suburb ← Back to board
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Currently listed — $1,290,000

2 bed · 2 bath · 1 car · ApartmentUnitFlat

View the live listing →

The Property Brief — what the evidence shows. You draw the conclusion.

CONSERVATIVE
$1.16M
the calibrated floor
LIKELY FAIR RANGE
$1.16M–$1.44M
around $1.3M mid
STRETCH CAP
$1.44M
$1.54M on the wider 80% band

Confidence: Low — based on 65 comparable auction sales (15 of this exact configuration) · model runs ±11% for this configuration · confidence held at Low — under 20 same-configuration sales · the model's typical miss is ~11% against published results — every hit and miss

What we've tracked

  • 15 Aug 2026 first tracked by our radar (the portal doesn't publish its list date)
  • 19 Aug 2026 asking $1.29M
  • 27 Aug 2026 on market 11+ days — first tracked by us, a lower bound

Comparable auction sales

AddressConfigSoldWhen
142/392 Jones St2 bd · 1 ba$955kJune 2025
805/99 Jones St2 bd · 2 ba$1.55MApr 2025
B812/62 Mountain St2 bd · 2 ba$1.07MMar 2025

Suburb risk flags

crime index: 100 — well above sydney average · 16 min walk to Central · light rail ~every 4 min at peak

Where every number comes from
  • Fair value: AI PropertyEye price model 2026-08-11-v5 — trained on 146,492 published auction sales; configuration-level (suburb × type × beds), not an appraisal of this exact home
  • Comps: published Domain auction results for Ultimo — suburb × configuration matches, not hyper-matched to this address
  • Evidence trail: tracked by our radar from portal listings, web-archive checks and published auction results — each entry dated
  • Risk flags: suburb-level overlays (BOCSAR crime, flood/bushfire intel, aircraft bands, GTFS transit) — NOT a per-parcel assessment

⏱ Days on market — this campaign

11 days since our daily sweep first saw this listing.

The portal's own campaign may have started slightly earlier than our first sighting. Longer campaigns tend to mean more negotiating room — the board's "Longest listed" sort exists for exactly that reason.

Local rents — postcode 2007 units, new tenancies

$750/week median new-tenancy unit rent in 2007 (2026Q2, 199 bonds lodged).

The rent is real (NSW Fair Trading bond lodgements, CC BY) but it pools every bedroom count in the postcode and this is a 2-bed — so we don't derive a yield % from it: a ratio of two different grains reads as precision it doesn't have. New-tenancy rents also run hotter than sitting rents. Not financial advice.

Growth trend — Ultimo units at auction

Too few same-bed sales for a measured growth rate yet. Recent quarterly sold medians (all unit sizes — thin samples move these):

2024Q3 $803k (5) · 2024Q4 $1078k (6) · 2025Q1 $750k (4) · 2025Q2 $955k (3)

Suburb-level, from published auction results. No single building has enough sales for a block-level series, so this is the honest grain; sales-mix shifts move raw medians, and the measured rate (when shown) controls for bed count.

Agencies' own published sales nearby — Ultimo, around 2 beds

AddressSoldPriceBedsAgency
108/330-370 Wattle Street26 Feb 2024$378,000Harris Partners
502/287 Pyrmont Street6 Dec 2023$850,0001Harris Partners
16/330 Wattle Street7 June 2023$401,500Harris Partners
91/330 Wattle Street2 June 2023$652,300Harris Partners

Prices as published on the selling agency's own website (their sold pages) — includes private-treaty sales the auction results never see. Only sales the agency chose to publish a figure for appear here.

Similar properties — on the market now

The 6 listings above are on the market now: same unit category, within 1 bedroom of 2, asking within 20% of this one, in Ultimo or a suburb whose centre is within 3 km — ordered by how close the asking price is. That is the whole rule: a filter, not a recommendation, and nothing here judges which home is better.

Want the numbers agents don't volunteer?

Check any Sydney suburb free — Market Mint market-conditions readout, live median, clearance trend and the price model — at aipropertyeye.com. No sign-up for the suburb check; the full board is 7 days free.

Data from published auction results (Domain) and live portal listings. Estimates are never valuations or financial advice. Own this home and want a result corrected? hello@aipropertyeye.com.