Paddington · Sydney NSW

Price model — what the model says a typical home here achieves at auction

Modelled from 146,492 Australian auction sales (2021–2026). Sydney cells run on the base model (suburb prior + configuration + time) without the Sydney-only land/school/transport features — ranges are honest about the wider uncertainty. Estimates from comparable auction results — not valuations or financial advice.

Buildings in Paddington — full dossiers: every sale, turnover, orders, what units rent for

The 20 most-transacted of 40 Paddington buildings with dossiers — the rest are reachable from these pages and the sitemap. Sales counts and resale records from NSW Valuer General bulk data (CC-BY); lot counts from the NSW Strata Hub register. Each dossier also states what public records cannot tell you.

Recent comparable sales — the real auction results behind the estimates

Units

Houses

Recent sold auction results in Paddington from the price model's training set (published Domain results). A sample, not every sale.

What Paddington actually sold for — published auction results, quarter by quarter

Quarterly medians of real published auction results (sold outcomes only). Historical results — not a prediction, valuation or financial advice.

All settled sales — every recorded sale, not just auctions

Last 12 months: 308 settled sales · median $2,875,000 (middle half $1,450,000–$4,462,500)

Settled-sale records from the NSW Valuer General's Property Sales Information. Dates are contract (exchange) dates; sales appear only once lodged, so the most recent months are incomplete and revise upward — never read the latest month as final. Residential sales of all methods — private treaty and auction. © State of New South Wales (Valuation NSW).

Crime — recorded key offences (BOCSAR)

Index 63 — above the Sydney average (50 = average) · band elevated

BOCSAR recorded key offences per resident at POSTCODE level (2021) — a postcode can span neighbouring suburbs. Rates are per RESIDENT — visitor-heavy precincts read high. Source: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (CC BY 4.0).

Delivered & approved supply — what got built around here, honestly windowed

523 dwellings approved in Paddington between 2019-08-30 and 2023-04-29 (699 applications). Largest: 105dw 1-11 Oxford Street Paddington 2021 (2021).

Census check: occupied dwellings grew from 5,291 (2016) to 6,435 (2021) — +1,144 delivered in that window, +57 of them apartments — measured completion, independent of any approval record.

Council portal records begin August 2019 — approvals before that date are invisible to the automated count and appear here only where curated from public record (and say so). Approved also precedes completed by 1–3 years. State-assessed projects live in the fast-track section, not these counts.

State-fiat planning programs — controls moved by state decision (RULE-002)

Low and Mid-Rise Housing reform — Darlinghurst and Paddington town centre (Oxford Street) · controls from 2025-02-28 · source

A state-fiat listing changes what can be BUILT here — planning controls, height, density — by government decision, with no demand-demonstration step. It is a zoning signal, not a price signal: our own backtests found listed and unlisted suburbs moving together, so we don't claim price uplift from a listing. What it reliably means: development capacity changed on the date shown, checkable at the source.

Institutional moves — arrivals & departures, 12-month DA window

When an organisation with real money commits to a location — or abandons one — they've done homework you can't see. The market moves around that decision; the building is the visible end of it.

investing in place Education — 248-250 Oxford Street Paddington 2021 · $4.2M works
Educational establishment · Alterations or additions to an existing building or structure · Information and education facility · Determined · determined 2026-06-18 · PAN-602576

A DA is intent, not an opening — and a demolition DA is not always a closure (rebuilds happen). Classification is over the Planning Portal's own structured development types; every record above is checkable by its PAN number. Departures are deliberately listed first: almost nobody watches them. Supermarket-class moves live in the anchor-tenant section, not here. Development application data © NSW Department of Planning and Environment, used under CC BY 4.0.

State-assessed housing nearby — the fast-track pipeline within 2.5km, refused declarations included

138 dwellings · 49 - 59 Mclachlan Avenue, Darlinghurst · 0.8km away · Think Planners
Not declared — fast-track refused · HDA record, 2026-06-23

136 – 148 New South Head Road, Edgecliff · 1km away
Determination — decision imminent · SSD-77608714

203-233 New South Head Road, Edgecliff · 1km away
On the State Significant register · SSD-89919464

136 - 148 New South Head Road, Edgecliff · 1km away
Withdrawn · SSD-76855210

110 dwellings · 45-53 Macleay Street, Potts Point · 1.3km away · Third.i Group
Under assessment · SSD-83867719

47-97 Marlborough Street, Surry Hills · 1.3km away
Responding to public submissions · SSD-78545225

+ 40 more within 2.5km — see the full fast-track list.

Known pipeline within 2.5km: 5,302 dwellings across 46 projects — future supply IF approved and built. More homes coming can mean growth in services and momentum, but also more stock competing with a resale.

These proposals go straight to NSW state assessment (Housing Delivery Authority pathway) and never appear in council DA counts. Dwelling numbers are the applicant's EOI figures — assessment can trim them. Distance is suburb-centre to project, ±500m.

Schools — density, catchment and community profile

9 primary schools within 2km · nearest school ~0.32km · 5 selective within 5km · ICSEA 1133

Catchment (suburb-centre approximation): Glenmore Rd PS · Inner Sydney HS — a boundary address can differ; verify yours at NSW School Finder.

ICSEA is the socio-educational advantage of a school's community (My School, national average ~1000) — a demographic measure, not a quality or results score. NSW DoE school locations + intake zones, CC BY 4.0.

Auction market pace — Sydney weekly clearance

Benchmark series (Domain): week to 2026-08-22 — 53.8% of 372 reported auctions. Our own tracking (withdrawn counted): week to 2026-08-22 — 43% of 524 scheduled. Lower clearance generally means more room for buyers to negotiate.

Suburb breakdown — trailing 8 weeks, our tracking, withdrawn counted

Recent auction addresses in Paddington

Every address links to its own page — published results, price estimate, suburb context.

7 Cecil St · 29 Ormond St · 12 Shadforth St · 100 Underwood St · 1D/4 Hampden St · 158 Underwood St · 2/54A Hopewell St · 140 Flinders St · 2/110 Cascade St · 15 Napier St · 105 Underwood St · 21 Sutherland St · 75 Elizabeth St · 10 Victoria Pl · 26/110 Cascade St · 15/364-370 Moore Park Rd · 55/204-232 Jersey Rd · 3/186 Glenmore Rd

Development pipeline — what's proposed in Paddington, and how far along it is

State-pipeline proposals (pre-DA — the biggest projects start here)

• 142-148, 160 Oxford Street, 6 Shadforth Street and 13 Gipps Street, Paddington — Demolition of existing structures and the
  Toohey Miller · Proposed — state-pipeline EOI (pre-DA, may change or lapse)

Major applications in the DA channel

Plus 266 smaller applications (renovations, single dwellings, signage) — 130 determined, 73 approved, 9 cancelled, 25 lodged, 18 withdrawn, 8 refused, 3 rejected.

What this view cannot see

• Council DAs from the NSW Planning Portal open feed, matched within ~150 m of addresses we track — a proximity net, not a complete register.
• Verdicts (approved/refused) come from a dataset frozen in Nov 2023: anything determined after that shows “determined” without a published outcome. Check the application on the NSW Planning Portal for the current decision.
• The largest master-planned sites can proceed as State Significant Development or planning proposals and never appear as council DAs. State-pipeline EOIs shown here are proposals, not applications, and can change or lapse.
• No feed we hold ties a construction certificate to a specific application, so no project row here can honestly read “under construction” — “approved” never means “built”. Suburb-level construction-certificate volume appears in the DA-volume section.

Housing and jobs targets — WOOLLAHRA LGA

Under the NSW Government's 20-year Sydney plan, WOOLLAHRA has a five-year housing target of 1,900 new homes (2024–2029) and a jobs target of 1,500–3,300 additional jobs by 2046.

The housing target is the supply pipeline for the area: the number of new homes the state expects the council to plan capacity for, concentrated around the centres and station areas the Plan nominates. The jobs figure is published as an aspirational range and is not legislated the way housing targets are.

Source: The Sydney Plan, Appendix D — Housing and Employment Guidance (published 13 August 2026), licensed CC BY 4.0. © State of New South Wales and Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure 2026

State rezoning pipeline — Woollahra LGA

The Sydney Plan lists one state significant rezoning site in this LGA — land the NSW Government is rezoning (or has rezoned) for additional homes and jobs, alongside council-led supply. Dwelling and jobs figures are preliminary estimates provided by proponents or councils.

• Edgecliff Woollahra Stations Precinct — ~10,000 dwellings · assessment underway, announced Aug 2025

These are LGA-level sites, not a statement about any individual property; the Plan does not publish site boundaries or coordinates in this appendix. Source: The Sydney Plan, Appendix F — State-led or assessed rezonings (published 13 August 2026, updated every 6 months), licensed CC BY 4.0. © State of New South Wales and Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure 2026